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Burnley vs Tottenham

Calendar 2nd September
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Burnley Goalkeeper 4+ Saves
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It’s been a hard start from recently promoted Burnley, sitting 18th through two games after Man City and Aston Villa to start the year. Things won’t get much easier against a Spurs side who appear to be starting to click under Postecoglou. Spurs generate 17.3 shots per game (5th highest), 6.0 of which are on target (joint 3rd highest). However a fairly average 34.6% shot accuracy means goalscoring is more about the quantity of chances created as opposed the a limited number of high quality ones.

Although yet to record a clean sheet, new signing James Trafford has performed fairly well early on and has been called on frequently. His 7.0 shots per 90 faced is the 3rd most in the division. With a safe rate of around 57%, Trafford is making just shy of 4 saves per game.

Despite conceding 3 goals per game, Trafford is out performing his Post-shot expected goals minus goals against number (PSxG-GA). A score of +0.28 means that his contributions have prevented an extra third of a goal per game. This number ranks him in the top half of all goalkeepers, just behind Nick Pope and Allison.

Manchester City vs Fulham

Calendar 2nd September
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Fulham Goalkeeper 4+ Saves
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Fulham are an odd team, 12th in the league after 3 games but I don’t really know how. Fulham have the highest xGA (9.5), the worst xGoal Difference (-7.0) and face the 2nd most SOT per game (9.0).

The only thing which has ensured Fulham have their 4pts is Bernd Leno. The German Shot Stopper has the second highest average rating in the Premier League (8.47) and here’s why.

Whilst facing 9.0 SOT/90, Leno has made 7.34 saves per 90, a division leading 88.9% save rate. Leno has outperformed his xGA and recorded a remarkable PSxG-GA/90 of +1.22, meaning that Leno stops 1.22 additional goals conceded each game! Without Leno, Fulham would be rock bottom of the league for sure.

Leno will need to put on another clinic if he’s to ensure Fulham take any points away from the Etihad. City record the second most shots per game (20.0) and with a 35% shot accuracy, City are asking questions of opposition keepers seven times each game (also the second most in the league).

Goal threats don’t come any bigger or more clinical than Man City’s Erling Haaland. The Norwegian is averaging 5.17 shots per game and records 2.41 efforts on goal every game. And then there’s the rest of the City squad to worry about. 4+ saves is a must for Leno.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Calendar 2nd September
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Nottingham Forest Goalkeeper 4+ Saves
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Following a season of limited action for Matt Turner, he was bought by Forest in the summer window to claim the number one shirt.

This may have proved to be a good bit of business as Turner’s 73.7% save rate ranks him in the top half of Premier League goalkeepers. This number is more impressive when taking into account the fact he has faced the 5th most shots against (6.34 per 90). His PSxG-GA score of +0.46 ranks his 6th in the league, ahead of Allison and just behind Tottenham’s Vicario.

Chelsea fans will hope that fortunes are turning following the 3-0 victory against Luton in their most recent league game with Jackson scoring his first and Sterling looking the sharpest he has been in a Chelsea shirt.

Chelsea have shown an appetite moving forwards, creating 15 shots per game, managing to record 5 SOT per 90. This 33% accuracy is middle of the pack but may be explained by the strength of recent fixtures.

I would be expecting The Blues to produce a similar performance to that of Luton, 19 shots, 8 on target and forcing 5 saves.

Brighton vs Newcastle United

Calendar 2nd September
Football icon kick off 17:30
Football icon Newcastle Goalkeeper 4+ Saves
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Brighton have not missed a beat this year, starting off as the top shot takers (22.34 per 90) with the most efforts directed goalwards (9.67 SOT). The Seagulls also rank 2nd in shot accuracy, with 43.34% of shots either testing, or beating, the keeper.

Due to this high volume of shots, Brighton forced a lot of saves. 8 made by Luton, 4 by Wolves, and 9 saves made by WHU in the most recent game. When we look at personnel, it’s no surprise really: when ranking players with the most SOT, Brighton have 3 of the top 10 players. March (6), Ferguson (5), and Grosb (5).

Newcastle will be tested for sure and I’m expecting them to see more than their average of 4.67 shots faced per 90 in this one. Pope has managed to record 3.34 saves per 90 which is solid, as is his 71.34% save ratio. If Brighton can keep up their early form in front of goal, Pope will be called on a number of times to keep the Magpies in the game.

Stake £10
Potential Returns £94.43
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