RB Leipzig vs Mainz
Over to Germany where things are seriously hotting up at the top end of the table.
Dortmund now lead Bayern by a point, with the two sides meeting on Saturday evening.
Leipzig’s defeat to Bochum before the break really threw a spanner in the works but Die Rotten Bullen are still just 3 points away from 3rd and 8 from the league leaders; a far from unrecoverable gap.
Goals had been the order of the day before the internationals with 5 of their last 7 matches producing over 2.5 goals. They’ve shown they can score goals for fun but they’ve also been exposed at the back, shown best by that devastating 7-0 defeat to Man City.
Overall this season, Leipzig have seen an average of 3.16 goals per game this season and 72% of their games have seen 3 or more match goals – the highest strike rate in the Bundesliga.
Mainz previous visit here saw them battered 4-1, however a 6 match unbeaten run should have them full of confidence.
That included some especially impressive results against BMG (4-0 win) and away to Leverkusen (3-2 win). Showing they can mix it with the big guns.
Now 9th in the table following that surge, the visitors are just 3 points outside of the European places and can definitely cause problems here.
Goals are well spread through the team with Marcus Ingvartsen leading the charts with 8 goals, which got him called up to the Denmark squad.
Perhaps thankfully for Mainz, he didn’t feature so he’ll be fresh as a daisy here.
Leipzig are set to remain without the injured Nkunku, which is a loss. But with the likes of Szoboszlai, Emil Forsberg, Timo Werner, Andre Silva and Dani Olmo all available; they’re definitley not short of firepower.
Wrexham vs Oldham
Another week, another goals treble, another feature for Wrexham.
A 92nd minute goal from them last weekend was huge in making it 3 trebles on the spin.
They’re joint on points with Notts County but with the fate of the title firmly in their hands, given that they’ve got 2 games in hand on their rivals.
Wrexham games average 3.46 goals, at home that rises to 3.95; the highest in the league.
69% of their matches this season have seen over 2.5 goals, that increases to a huge 79% when playing at the Racecourse ground.
They regularly cover this line of this town accord, thanks to the quality in attack they possess. Largely thanks to 31 goal marksman Paul Mullin.
At home, Wrexham have been devastating. They’ve won 18/19 matches and remain unbeaten.
They’ve scored a ridiculous 60 goals. Head and shoulders above anyone else in the league.
They still aren’t the most stable at the back and they do concede chances. Both Dorking and Chesterfield rippled the net here in recent games.
Oldham have overcome what looked like a free fall following their relegation from League Two.
They can definitely contribute here. They’ve scored 51 goals this season, that’s more than the likes of Boreh Wood and Eastleigh who currently occupy the play-offs.
Oldham have netted at least once in 11 of their last 12 away games and BTTS has landed in 10 of those.
I expect Wrexham to score a few here, but even better if Oldham can chip in, especially given that Wrexham will have to throw men forward so they don’t surrender ground to Notts County.
Auxerre vs Troyes
The price here for goals is too high in my honest opinion. The 1.33 available for over 1.5 may sound small, however I’d have expected that price to have been closer to the 1.2 mark.
Troyes are a favourite of mine when it comes to backing goals. They’re absolute nutters, especially when playing away from home.
They have the highest number of match goals on average in Ligue 1 and they too the charts for games over 2.5 goals (68%). We only need over 1.5 here, which they hit at a rate of 89%.
But their away numbers, are mind boggling. On the road, their games average 4.36 goals. You read that right… 4.36.
86% of their away games have had over 2.5 goals and 93% have had over 1.5.
They haven’t kept a single away clean sheet but have also managed to net in 11/14.
Their top scorer is talented youngster Mame Balde, his 9 goals have all come on the road this season.
Auxerre games aren’t as entertaining but they’re still decent in the areas we’re looking.
Their matches average 2.64 goals and 75% have seen this selection land.
Also, the context behind this game is massive. These two both sit in the relegation zone, separated by just 2 points. It’s poised wonderfully for goals, especially if someone scores early.