Manchester city v Chelsea Longshot Bet Builder

With recent form in mind, there’s no other player that I’m taking for a card above Moises Caicedo.

Fernandez looks to be on the up, Gallagher is playing in a more advanced role, whereas Caicedo is being left to fend for himself at the base of the Chelsea midfield.

He’s making a whole host of mistakes, and his 1.94 fouls P/90 and 6 yellow cards are a byproduct of that.

It’s no surprise either, that he committed 3 fouls, and received a card, when Chelsea hosted City back in November.

He’ll have a whole host of quality operators to deal with as well. Whether it’s De Bruyne, Alvarez, or the 1.79 fouls drawn P/90 of Foden, Caicedo night is bound to be a long one.

With the defensive frailty Chelsea have shown of late, there’s every chance of a Caicedo card.

Whatever you think of Chelsea, it’s clear that Cole Palmer is a star in the making. He’s been the shining light in their season, and I expect that form to continue.

10 league goals, 6 league assists, he tops both charts for the Blues this campaign.

He’s absolutely their biggest threat. Palmer averages 0.96 shots on target P/90, and his recent form in that regard is strong.

The Chelsea man has managed a SOT in 8 of his last 10 in the league, and in 12 of his last 15 in all competitions.

Not to mention he’s on penalties, and even scored one when these sides met in November.

And, it’s the opponent in particular that makes this selection so enticing. If his stats weren’t good enough, this is Palmer’s former club. He was rarely afforded opportunities at City, he’ll be desperate to make a difference here.

Conor Gallagher does a lot of kicking, but you’d perhaps be a bit surprised at how much he gets kicked himself.

He’s the most consistent player in the league when it comes to fouls drawn over the last 10 games, having drawn a foul in each of them.

In fact, Gallagher has drawn a foul in 18 of his last 20 in all competitions, and in 28 of his 33 appearances for Chelsea this season.

That’s a remarkable hit rate, one compounded by an average of 1.65 fouls drawn P/90. Not to mention, he’s drawn 2+ fouls in each of his last 3 in the league, and 11 separate times this season.

He drew 2 fouls in Chelsea’s meeting with City in November, and no doubt Rodri played a part in that.

He’s averaging 1.41 fouls P/90, and with how combative Gallagher is, they’re bound to cross paths.

If anyone in the City side is worth looking at for a foul or two, then it has to be Rodri.

Guardiola’s midfield general is averaging 1.49 fouls P/90 this season, committed 3 fouls in the reverse fixture, and as always, will be charged with protecting the defence.

He’s committed 2+ fouls on 8 occasions this season, including 3 in midweek against a comparatively weak Copenhagen side.

Chelsea have a really happy knack of forcing the better sides into committing a whole host of fouls.

When these two last met, City committed 15 at Stamford Bridge, and Chelsea have seen similar success against the likes of Liverpool, Spurs, and Arsenal, drawing 10+ fouls against all of the current top 4 this season.

They’re averaging 12.10 fouls drawn P/90, with the midfield trio contributing serious numbers, and that’s bound to put pressure on the Spaniard.

Gallagher, Fernandez, and Caicedo combine for 3.93 fouls drawn P/90, and the Rodri fouls should come as a result of those numbers.