Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Betting Tips and Stats

I’m keen to back Bruno Guimaraes to hit the target at least once at the City Ground on Sunday afternoon.
The all-action Newcastle midfielder likes to pull the trigger whenever the opportunity arises, which is reflected in his average of 1.43 shots per game in the Premier League this season, with 0.74 on target.

That on-target figure had been trending upwards before his recent spell on the sidelines with injury. In fact, prior to that layoff, Guimaraes had hit the target in 10 of his previous 12 Premier League appearances. On top of that, the Brazilian registered a shot on target off the bench against Bournemouth when returning from injury last month, despite only featuring for around 30 minutes. With two starts under his belt since returning, the 28-year-old should be building fitness and sharpness, which only adds to the appeal of backing him to hit the target against what could be a weary Nottingham Forest side.

It is also worth noting that the hosts rank 6th in the Premier League for shots conceded this season, which only strengthens the case for Guimaraes to deliver at least one shot on target.

I think Elliot Anderson looks a prime candidate to commit a minimum of 2 fouls on Sunday afternoon. The Nottingham Forest midfielder has been a regular on the referee’s radar this season, underlined by the fact he is committing an average of 1.52 free kicks per game in the Premier League this season.

On closer inspection, Anderson has been penalised exactly 2 times in each of his last 4 Premier League starts, including Nottingham Forest’s most recent home fixture against Burnley. On top of that, the England international also overstepped the mark on multiple occasions during Forest’s 4-0 defeat away at Aston Villa in the Europa League on Thursday night.

With Anderson likely to find himself in the midfield battleground alongside Bruno Guimaraes on Sunday afternoon, I think there is a strong possibility that trend continues. The Newcastle midfielder is well renowned for being a foul magnet, underlined by the fact he is drawing an average of 2.53 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, being fouled at least twice in each of his 3 appearances since returning from injury.

Neco Williams’ ability to draw fouls often goes under the radar, and I’m keen to back the Nottingham Forest utility man to be fouled at least twice at the City Ground on Sunday. The Welsh defender is drawing an average of 1.51 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, placing him amongst the most fouled players in the Nottingham Forest squad. A closer look at the numbers shows that Williams has been brought down in 14 of his 17 top-flight appearances at the City Ground this term, earning his side multiple free kicks in 5 of his last 12 home league outings.

That trend has also carried on to the continent, with Williams fouled 2+ times in 7 of his 15 Europa League appearances this season, including on 4 occasions during Thursday night’s defeat away at Aston Villa.

The likelihood of Williams operating in similar areas of the pitch to Bruno Guimaraes only adds further weight to this selection. The Newcastle midfielder is committing an average of 1.47 fouls per game in the Premier League this season and was penalised 3 times in the reverse fixture earlier in the campaign.