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Hour glass kick off 14:00 23 Sep

Goals Galore O2.5

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AC Milan vs Verona

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 14:00
Football icon Over 2.5 goals
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The Rosseneri sit 3rd in the table on points as well as 3rd in the average goals per game table with 4.00 goals in their matches so far. Milan also rank 4th in xG per 90 with 1.63.

Milan have seen O2.5 goals in 75% of league games, and each of their last three. The one game which didn’t reach this mark was their opening day 0-2 win away to Bologna – so Milan also have a 100% record of O1.5 goals in games.

Verona were one of the sides tipped to struggle this season but have so far defied expectations. The away side start the weekend in 9th after winning both of their two opening games.

Verona games only see an average of 2.0 goals per game with 50% of their games seeing O1.5 and O2.5 goals. However, five of the last 6 games against AC Milan have seen O2.5 (including each of the last 4). Each of the last seven head to heads have seen at least two goals also.

Milan will be keen to bounce back from their humbling at the hands of their cross-town rivals. They are more than capable of scoring three by themselves but have also shown frailty at the back, one clean sheet in four Serie A games leaves a lot to be desired.

Dortmund vs Wolfsburg

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 14:30
Football icon Over 2.5 goals
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6th placed Wolfsburg travel to a 7th placed Dortmund in round 5 of the Bundesliga. It’s gearing up to be a good match here between 2 teams playing on a similar level early into the season.

What we’ve got here are 2 teams who, combined, have an xG of 3.23 per game which is quite impressive.

It’s no surprise their games see a lot of goals when these 2 teams are playing with superb xG (Dortmund 1.91 and Wolfsburg 1.86).

Currently Dortmund avg 3.25 per game and Wolfsburg are 3.00 goals per game.

In Dortmund’s last 5 games, there have been 15 goals scored, and 18 in Wolfsburg’s last 5.

Dortmund were runners up last season due to goal difference, and they’ll need to up the stakes even more this season to stay in contention with a very powerful Bayern team. Which means quite simply, they need to score more goals.

Plymouth vs Norwich

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Over 2.5 goals
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Plymouth and Norwich are having quite contrasting seasons in the Championship.

Norwich are sat in the play-off places within touching distance of the automatic promotion places, whilst Plymouth are only 4 points off the relegation zone.

So points here are important to both teams for different reasons. There is a long way to go in the season but every single point will count.

One thing they do have in common is that their fixtures are resulting in goals. Norwich are 3rd highest in the league with 3.57 avg per game and Plymouth are not far off that with 3.00 avg.

Norwich’s last 5 games have seen a whopping 17 goals (3.5 avg per game), with Norwich scoring 13 of those.

Their xG this season is 1.73.

Plymouth’s last 5 games have seen an even better 18 goals (3.6 avg). Plymouth scoring 11 of those (xG 1.41).

I expect that we’ll see plenty of goals fly in during this game.

Sutton vs MK Dons

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Over 2.5 goals
Arrow down

Sutton welcome MK Dons to the VBS Community Stadium looking to lift themselves off the bottom of EFL League Two.

Sutton won their 1st game of the season and lost every single other game since. Suffering some heavy losses along the way (L5-3, L3-0, L4-1).

It’ll be no surprise to hear that they’ve conceded the most goals in the league. Their fixtures have avg 3.88 per game with 8 games played.

MK Dons are up to 9th place currently only a few points off the play-off places.

MK Dons’ games are averaging 3.63 goals per game.

They’re actually over performing their xG of 1.17. Meaning that they are scoring more goals than they are expected to. Quite simply, they are clinical finishers.

So this looks to be a miss-match of a team who are leaking goals against a team who are putting away what chances they do have. I’m expecting a feast here.

Osasuna vs Sevilla

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 15:15
Football icon Over 2.5 goals
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Osasuna games have seen an average of 3.00 goals per game, 60% have seen three or more goals and all of the games have seen at least two.

Osasuna score the joint 6th most goals in La Liga but also concede the 4th most with just a single clean sheet to their name. It’s still early days but it’s looking like goals are on the cards in gameweek six.

Sevilla bring the 3rd most goals per game into this one (3.50). 75% of games have exceeded the O2.5 mark, all of those games saw both sides finding the back of the net.

Sevilla may have turned the corner in their most recent league game, winning 1-0 against Las Palmas but their defense doesn’t inspire confidence. Conceding two goals per game with just a single clean sheet through five games is not where the UEFA Super Cup finalists would like to see themselves.

Estoril vs Vizela

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 15:30
Football icon Over 2.5 Goals
Arrow down

Estoril games have been nothing short of exciting so far, for all the wrong reasons.

A record of 1-0-4 has them 17th in Liga Portugal. But this same five game sample has seen 23 goals, an average of 4.60 per game! Estoril themselves average an xG of 1.62 which is only behind Benfica, Porto and league leading Boavista.

80% of games have seen three or more goals, and all games have seen at least two. They give as good as they get too, despite Estoril conceding a league high 13 goals, they also score at a rate of two goals per game, ranking them joint 3rd, on par with both Braga and Sporting Lisbon.

Vizela have scored six and conceded nine through their five games for an average of 3.00 goals per game. Vizela saw O2.5 in 80% of their games, with BTTS occurring in 60% of matches.

Last season, this fixture finished 0-3 to the visitors. With Estoril’s defensive woes, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a repeat here.

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