Rochdale vs Carlisle
Carlisle are flying right now and have moved to within a point of 3rd place.
The Blues dispatched of Hartlepool in midweek 3-1. They were superb, racking up an xG of over 3, only conceding as a result of a misshit back pass.
They’ve now won 4 of their last 5. They’ve got the leagues top scorer; Kristian Dennis who netted his 14th and 15th goals on Tuesday. Carlisle are now also the leagues highest scorers.
Paul Simpson has completely turned the tide with shrewd signings. Owen Moxon has taken the league by storm and recently bolstering with John Kymani-Gordon from Palace looks like another smart move.
Dale are rock bottom, having won 1 of their last 10. They average an xG of just 1.05 and are only managing 8.41 shots per game.
For some colour, Carlisle had 11 shots on target in midweek.
I’d expect Carlisle to continue their upward trajectory as they challenge for automatic promotion.
Crawley vs Salford
After the scandals at the club, it felt like things couldn’t get worse at Crawley but their league performances suggest they very well can.
They’re winless in their last 4, losing 3. They’re just 2 points above the relegation zone and rank as one of the lowest scorers in the league.
Their metrics are abysmal. Their average xG is just 0.89 and they only manage around 2 shots on target per game.
They’re conceding double the shots and shots on target they take and are averaging an xGA of 1.54.
Effectively, every positive action that Crawley take is done twice over by their opponent.
Neil Wood has seemingly got Salford players singing from the same hymn sheet again and they’ve now lost just 1 of their last 7.
That includes impress results such as a 2-1 win over Northampton, as well as heft away wins of 3-0 agaisnt Gillingham and 4-1 against Grimsby.
There’s never been doubt about the quality in this squad but it’s come to fruition of late, most noteably with the form of Conor McAleny. He’s scored 6 in his last 4 games, he’d scored just 1 prior to that.
I think the price on offer for the visitors is generous. They’re the superior side and if they bring their A game, they should win.
Along with Carlisle they’re right in the mix for automatic promotion so keeping up momentum is key.
Morecambe vs Bristol Rovers
No side in League One has seen more goals per game than Bristol Rovers. They’ve scored 42, and conceded 45 in just 27 games for an average of 3.22 goals per game. Only the league’s top 3 have scored more than Rovers, and only the league’s bottom 3 have conceded more goals.
The fact that Bristol Rovers have seen the Both Teams to Score selection land in 67% of their games only serves to reinforce the above numbers, no other side in the league can better them in this metric. They truly are an entertaining and expansive side.
Opponents Morecambe are absolutely capable of contributing to the entertainment on Saturday. Whilst they’ve scored just 26 goals in as many games, the Shrimps rank 5th in League one for percentage of games in which both teams have scored with 58%.
Again, only 4 teams in League One have a worse defence than Morecambe, and their 39 goals conceded suggests that Rovers will find plenty of joy.
Rovers have kept just 4 clean sheets in their 27 game season thus far, and they’ve conceded in each of their last 6. As for goals, they’ve failed to score just the 4 times as well, and have netted at least once in all but one of their last 17.
As for the hosts, Morecambe have conceded in 10 of their last 12, and scored in 9 of their last 11.
Dorking vs Solihull Moors
Dorking have become a true favourite of mine, and goals are very much a given whenever they step onto the pitch.
The host’s goals (both scored and conceded) per game average sits at a staggering 4.00. Solihull fixtures certainly don’t let anyone down in the goals department either, with their games averaging 2.88 goals.
Only the league’s top 4 have scored more goals than Dorking, who’ve netted 44 times this campaign. However, they’ve conceded 64 this season, with only bottom of the table Maidstone having a worse defensive record than them. Solihull themselves are good for goals at either end, having both scored and conceded 36.
No team has a better record for over 2.5 goals in the league than Dorking as well. That particular selection has landed in 78% of their games. Solihull are a little less profitable in this market, sitting at 52%, but given the opponent plenty of goals should still be on the cards.
Dorking have just the two clean sheets to their name this season, a stat that bodes well for Solihull. They’ve conceded in all but one of their last 19 games, and have scored in 9 of their last 11. They’ve conceded a minimum of 2 in 5 of their last 6.
As for Solihull, they’ve conceded a minimum of 2 goals in 6 of their last 7. They have just the 4 clean sheets to their name themselves, and goals really could fly in at either end here.