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Hour glass kick off 14:30 23 Sep

Saturday Double

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Bayern Munich vs Bochum

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 14:30
Football icon Bayern Munich to win each half
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I’ve tipped Bayern to win both halves against a pretty poor Bochum team who have played more games than they have points (P4 but only 3 pts on the board).

There has only been 1 match so far where Bayern were not winning at half time and only 2 where they did not win the 2nd half. These include their last match against the lead leaders Leverkusen.

Coming across goals doesn’t seem a problem for Bayern. In fact, they have by far the highest xG in the league (xG 2.37) and are actually over performing that metric. They have scored in every half of football at home (75% overall).

Bochum on the other hand have only won 1 half of football all season and have only scored 4 goals in the 4 games compared to Bayern’s 11.

Bochum struggle to score goals as it is, operating on an xG of 1.17 away from home and still under perfoming that.

With the likes of Kane, Sane, Gnabry, Musiala and a wealth of attacking force, playing at home against poor opposition I can’t see anything other than a flurry of goals in Bayern’s favour.

Football icon Bayern Munich most corners in each half
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Looking at the stats on this one and Bayern’s record in corners so far this year are unbelievable.

In 4 games, they have racked up crazy numbers. They had 7 corners against Leverkusen’s 4, 15 against M’gladbach’s 1, 10 against Ausburg’s 4 and 6 against Weder Bremen who had none at all.

Bayern average 7.5 corners in the 1H when playing at home, and 5 in the 2H. Total average corners per game is 11.75 (2nd highest in the league).
By comparison, Bochum only average 2.50 corners in the 1H when playing away from home.

They fare slightly better in a 2H where they average 4 corners in 2H but still are 4th lowest for average corners won.

The odds are so heavily stacked in Bayerns favour here. I just can’t see how Bochum will get much of the ball to even get forward let alone win corners.

Football icon Bochum most cards
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Once again, I can only see this going one way. Bochum to get the most cards.

Bochum are committing on average 15 fouls per game, which is the 3rd highest in the league. 2 of Bochums players are in the top 15 for most fouls committed P/90.

Although Bayern are not a million miles away from that on 12.8, the sheer fact Bochum will be doing a lot of the chasing and trying to disrupt Bayern’s flow means they they’ll be taking players out left, right and centre.

Bayern average 62.5% possession (the highest in the league) and Bochum only 46% (11th in the league).

This season so far, Bochum have had twice as many yellow cards (8) as Bayern have (4) and I’m expecting them to pick up a few more as a result of the fouls.

We see if so often in games where weaker teams give away fouls when trying to get a touch of the ball against a stronger, faster, more technically gifted team. I think it’ll be the same here.

Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest

Calendar 23rd September
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Man City to win each half
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The Citizens have picked up right where they left off last season, winning each of their first league games to start off the year.

Of the ten halves they’ve played in the Premier League, they have won seven of them. Winning both halves of the games against Burnley on the opening night and more recently against Fulham.

Forest have started in pretty good shape, 2-1-2 from their first five is nothing to be sniffed at by Steve Cooper’s men. Forest have won five of their ten halves so far this season and tend to start brightly – only losing one first half in their most recent outing against Burnley.

Last season, this fixture finished 6-0 to the Home side, a Haaland hatrick seeing Forest down by three at the break before Cancelo and Alvarez (2) compounded Forest’s misery with another three in the second half.

If there would be any room for complacency, forget it, Forest made the mistake of holding City to a 1-1 draw at the City Ground in the reverse fixture, something which Pep will not take lying down. With City looking to press their early 2pt advantage over Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal, I can’t see Pep settling for anything less than the 6-0 score of last year.

Football icon Man City most corners in each half
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Much with City’s domination of the scoreboard, they tend to come out on top in corners too, averaging 7.00 per game (3rd highest in the league). City also hold opponents too few chances from the corners too, opponents average 3.20 corners per game (the 3rd lowest in the league).

In terms of halves, City have come out on top 6/10 halves this season, completing a double over Newcastle and West Ham.

The corner numbers make grim reading for Forest, who give away 7.40 corners per 90, 3rd most in the league. They also average the fewest corners in the division with 3.40 per contest. As such, Forest have failed to win the corner battle in 7/10 of their halves this year.

The final nail in the coffin is in the H2H record across both league encounters last year, Forest were trounced in corners, losing 5-0, 5-1, 4-0, and 6-0 to City. That’s a total margin of 20-1 across the two games.

Football icon Nottingham Forest most cards
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Forest pick up 2.80 cards per game compared to City’s league leading discipline record of 1.00 per 90.

This difference in bookings could be due to the frequency of fouls as Forest commit 10.60 fouls per game to City’s 9.20 (the second lowest in the division). Teams who play City also received the highest amount of cards in the league, City’s opponents averaging 3.20 cards per game this year.

City have received fewer cards than their opponent in all five Premier League games so far this season. Forest have only picked up more cards than their opponent once (4-3 against Chelsea) however this does include two draws (2-2, 4-4) and two games where opponents lost the booking battle 3-2.

Both games last year were remarkably clean, neither side receiving a booking in 180’+ of football. Based on the numbers for this year, I would expect to see Forest in the book a few times.

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