13/1 Premier league accumulator

This may look a strange one at first, but Newcastle have really regressed in this market from last season. They were a corner machine during their last campaign, but now, they’re offering very little for backers.

Last season, they took an average of 7.08 corners per game, 6 per game when playing away. This season that’s dropped to 4.50 and a measly 3.67 when playing away from home.

And, get this, in away games; Newcastle have lost the corner match bet in 83% of their outings. A quite incredible statistic.

They’ve conceded an average of 4.67 away from home, so 1.00 more than they’re taking on average. Everton have taken an average of 5.43 at Goodison Park this season and have won the corner match bet in 56% of those.

Everton have been in good form lately, and Dycheball is coming in to its own. They’re unbeaten in 4 of their last 5, and are just 2 points behind Luton at the time of writing this, so could move above them with a win here; assuming that Arsenal win at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday night.

Villa home games have been the place to be for entertainment this season. Every game has had over 3.5 goals, never mind the 2.5 we need here.

Games at Villa Park have averaged 4.67 goals, the highest in the league. Villa will go toe to toe with anyone in front of their own fans, and I expect the same here against a City side who’ve shown themselves to be somewhat vulnerable lately.

There’s been 3+ goals in 5 of City’s last 6 matches, with BTTS also landing in 5 of those. They conceded 3 to Spurs on Sunday, they also shipped 4 to Chelsea and despite scoring 6, even Bournemouth got on the scoresheet at the Etihad.

City games have averaged 3.71 goals, and they’ve got a 71% strike rate for this selection.

These two are also the highest scorers in the league, and with the likes of Watkins, Diaby, Haaland, Doku and Alvarez on the scene here, I expect this to be the best game of a bumper midweek fixture list.

After 14 games, Brighton still have the incredible record of seeing BTTS land in every single game this season. I fancy that to continue here against a Brentford side with a lot of quality.

There’s no doubt Brighton have the talent in attack, and also the depth to cope with their injury and suspension issues but at the back it’s taking its toll. They’ll be without the likes of Estupinan, Webster and most importantly Lewis Dunk here.

Brighton are so gung-ho under De Zerbi. They play out, they always approach things at a high tempo and their metrics suppoer that. They average a massive 1.80 xG per 90, and a worryingly high 1.61 xGA. Basically, there’s tonnes of chances at both ends in their games.

Brentford strolled past Luton at the weekend, and looked good in doing so. They did still concede though, which is a relatively common theme for The Bees, who’ve seen BTTS land themselves in 57% of games this season.

Speaking of rubbish sides who are due a return to The Championship, I’m backing against Sheff Utd here, as you’ll see me do plenty of times this season.

That 5-0 loss to Burnley has seen Paul Heckingbottom lose his job. I do feel for him somewhat. The players looked completely disinterested, and he was never helped by the board and their insane summer transfer window that saw them sell their 2 best players, with no time to replace them. One of which, was sold to Burnley.

The Blades have lost 11 of their 14 matches and are routed to the bottom of the table. Now managerless and reeling from a 5-0 defeat, what you probably don’t want is the visit of Liverpool.

The Reds produced a late show to turn the tide on Fulham, winning 4-3 after being 3-2 down at 86 minutes.

Only Man City and Villa have scored more goals than The Reds, and although their away form isn’t great as of late, I’d take that with a pinch of alt given they’ve played City, Brighton and Spurs recently.

I expect them to flatten Sheff Utd here. We’ve already seen Newcastle come here and win 8-0, and Bournemouth won at a canter here in the last home match.

There is simply no comparison between the quality on show in the two squads here, and Jurgen Klopp’s side are well and truly in the title race, especially after the draw between Spurs and City

It’s a clean sweep in this market for The Hammers, in away games, with every game on the road this season seeing both teams find the net. I fancy that to continue too, against a Spurs side who only play one way – flat out. Something we saw yet again as they drew 3-3 with City on Sunday.

Spurs have scored in every game so far this season, and BTTS has landed in 71% of games. It’s a real theme for the PL this season, with the league seeing a huge increase in goals compared to prior campaigns.

Spurs have averaged a really impressive 1.84 xG this season, but have been offering up an xGA of 1.68.

West Ham create 1.46 xG, and allow a hefty xGA of 1.82. So the metrics combine well between the two, for us to see more goals. West Ham also have their huge set piece threat as well, which has only been heightened since JWP’s arrival.

Spurs are still without a lot of first team players, especially in defence. The City game saw them start 4 full-backs across their defence, with Ben Davies and Emerson playing as centre halves and Yves Bissouma the only natural ‘holding’ midfielder.

City racked up 2.76 xG, and should’ve been out of sight. I think West Ham will cause a lot of issues here, and I definitely wouldn’t be backing Spurs at the 1.70 odds on offer.

Don’t let the weekend fool you. Burnley are still one of the worst sides in the league, by a country mile. A 5-0 win is great, and I’m sure the mood has improved in Vincent Kompany’s side, but Sheff Utd are the only team capable of taking a beating like that. Hitting the self destruct button with a red card at 2-0 down, didn’t help either.

Wolves are a much tougher prospect. I’m impressed with Gary O’Neil’s side every time I see them, especially at home and they could be sitting much prettier had they not had 3/4 awful VAR decisions now go against them, they’ve been woefully unlucky.

Overall, Wolves are now unbeaten in 9 of their last 11 home PL games. This season, they’ve beaten Spurs and Man City here, as well as drawing with Aston Villa and Newcastle; the latter of which, they were robbed by a wrong VAR call.

Burnley have now won 2 games this season, but there’s solace further for backing Wolves here, as after their last win; Burnley lost 6 straight games.

It must be clearly stated, Burnley’s only 2 wins have come against Luton and Sheffield United. I can’t see them beating many teams better than them on paper this entire season, especially away from home.