Atleltico Madrid vs Inter Milan Bet Builder

It’s easy to see why I’m going down this route for this clash. Two teams that love to stick the boot in, especially with what’s on the line. Inter have the advantadge going into this one and they’ll need to defend their lead in a hostile Metropolitano stadium. Inter made 10 fouls in the first leg and I expect it to be even fiestier tonight.

In the big games this season, Inter foul plenty. 14 against Roma, 13 against Napoli, 15 against Lazio and 13 against Juventus. Their average across the league campaign is 10.9 per game and that’s despite being comfortably top.

I don’t need to go into great detail for this one, either. Simeone’s team love a foul and that goes up a notch on Champions League nights.

They made 16 in the first leg and 11+ landed in 6 of their last 10 league games, as well as 4 of their 7 Champions League fixtures. Their league average is 11 fouls per game and I’d be shocked if they don’t reach that with so much on the line tonight.

Inter’s captain is integral to their success, its not hard to see why. He brings goals, he’s creative and he’ll win a lot of fouls in these sort of games.

Out of Inter’s regular starters, he’s fouled most often at 1.87 p90. He’s been fouled in all of his last 10 games, including FIVE in the first leg. I think that says enough.

I backed this selection in the first leg and it landed convincingly. The Italian international fouled twice and has made 8 in his last 5 games.

With the onus on Atletico to attack in this game, I fancy Bastoni to have a busy evening. He’ll face Morata, who draws 1.51 foul p90, as well as De Paul (2.68) and the overlapping Llorente (0.91). Given that Bastoni is among Inter’s most frequent foulers, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this land quickly again tonight.

Hermoso lives for these types of games and that’s because he’s a bit of a nutter. He is prone to a rash decision and this game is high stakes and with Martinez and Thuram troubling him, 1 foul has got a strong chance.

Hermoso’s average across the season is 1.06 fouls per 90 but he’s consistently making fouls in some of the bigger games. He’s made 3 in 2 recent games against Real, 3 against Athletic Bilbao and his Champions League foul count is 7 from 7.